U.S. Population Growth Expected to Slow as Immigration Falls and Society Ages
The United States is expected to see significantly slower population growth over the next three decades as stricter immigration policies and an aging population reshape the country’s demographic outlook, according to new projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
The nonpartisan agency estimates that the U.S. population will increase by about 15 million people over the next 30 years, rising from roughly 349 million today to around 364 million. This forecast represents a notable reduction compared with projections released last year.
CBO analysts attribute much of the slowdown to reduced immigration and long-term declines in birth rates. Recent policy changes under President Donald Trump’s administration, including expanded deportations and tighter visa restrictions, are expected to reduce the number of immigrants entering or remaining in the country over the coming decade.
The report also highlights the growing impact of an aging population. By the end of this decade, all members of the baby boomer generation will be over the age of 65, increasing pressure on government programs such as Social Security and Medicare while shrinking the pool of working-age taxpayers.
According to the CBO, overall population growth is projected to level off by the mid-2050s. Without immigration, the U.S. population would begin to decline as early as 2030, when deaths are expected to outnumber births.
Demographers note that immigration has played a critical role in sustaining population growth in recent years, particularly as fertility rates remain below replacement levels. Fewer immigrants also mean fewer future births, further slowing long-term growth.
While immigration levels can change quickly due to policy shifts or economic conditions, experts say the current projections reflect a lasting demographic disruption that could influence economic growth, labor markets, and federal budgets for decades.
The population estimates released by the CBO are used as a foundation for federal budget planning and long-term economic forecasts.
