Zohran Mamdani Leads New York City Mayoral Race by Wide Margin

Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani is leading the race to become the next mayor of New York City by a significant margin, according to betting website Polymarket. On August 13, the platform reported Mamdani’s chances of winning the November general election at 82 percent. By comparison, former Governor Andrew Cuomo stands at 10 percent, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 6 percent, and conservative activist and radio host Curtis Sliwa at just 1 percent. Attorney Jim Walden also holds a 1 percent chance.

Cuomo, Adams, and Walden are running as independents, while Sliwa is contesting as the Republican candidate. Mamdani made waves in New York politics in June after defeating Cuomo in the Democratic primary, and subsequent polls have consistently shown him ahead of his rivals.

The Siena University poll conducted August 4–7 found Mamdani with 44 percent support, compared to Cuomo’s 25 percent, Sliwa’s 12 percent, and Adams’s 7 percent, among 813 registered voters. A separate survey by Zenith Research and Public Progress Solutions from July 16–24 placed Mamdani even higher at 50 percent, with Cuomo at 22 percent, Sliwa at 13 percent, Adams at 7 percent, and Walden at 1 percent, leaving 6 percent undecided.

Head-to-head matchups also favor Mamdani. He leads Cuomo 52–40 percent and Adams 59–32 percent. Cuomo has said he may withdraw if he does not gain momentum by September. Mamdani’s support is strongest among younger voters, progressive communities, and Jewish voters, while Cuomo performs better with older demographics.

Analysts attribute Mamdani’s rise to his progressive proposals, including rent stabilization, publicly owned grocery stores, and universal childcare. A July survey found 89 percent of his supporters back him for his cost-reduction plans, 86 percent for his pledge to tax the wealthy, and 62 percent for his stance in support of Palestinian rights.

The race has grown increasingly heated, with Cuomo denying reports that he discussed the election with former President Donald Trump, while Mamdani accused him of “colluding” with Trump. Mamdani declared, “My administration will be Donald Trump’s worst nightmare.”

Public Progress Solutions chief Amit Singh Bagga noted, “If the field remains unchanged, Zohran Mamdani is likely to become New York City’s next mayor.” Senator Bernie Sanders has endorsed Mamdani, calling for “new leadership that will stand up to corporate interests and address real problems facing New Yorkers.”

However, Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf warned that some voter blocs may reject a socialist candidate. Meanwhile, Republican Curtis Sliwa attacked Mamdani, saying, “We need a mayor who fights for working New Yorkers, not one who exploits the system. Housing shortages cannot be solved with slogans — we need real solutions.”

The New York City mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025. With Cuomo and Adams still in the race, their presence could influence the final outcome, while Sliwa hopes to pull off an upset in a fractured field.