Migrant Encounters at US–Mexico Border Fall to Lowest Level in Decades

The number of migrants encountered by U.S. Border Patrol along the US–Mexico border has dropped to its lowest level in more than five decades, according to a new analysis by the Pew Research Center based on federal government data.

The analysis shows that during the 2025 fiscal year—spanning from October 2024 to September 2025—Border Patrol recorded a total of 237,538 migrant encounters at the southern border. This marks a sharp decline from over 1.5 million encounters in fiscal year 2024, more than 2 million in 2023, and a record high exceeding 2.2 million in 2022. Border Patrol data indicate that such a low annual figure has not been recorded since 1970.

In this context, an “encounter” refers to an incident in which migrants are apprehended or stopped while attempting to cross the border outside official ports of entry. The figure represents events rather than individual people, as the same person may be counted multiple times if they attempt to cross repeatedly.

Experts attribute the dramatic decline to a series of policy changes implemented by both the United States and Mexico. In April 2024, then U.S. President Joe Biden and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced a joint effort to strengthen border enforcement. Increased monitoring and enforcement by Mexican authorities significantly reduced migrant flows, the analysis noted.

Following this, the Biden administration introduced additional restrictions on asylum access in June and September 2024, further tightening border controls.

After returning to office in January 2025, President Donald Trump declared a national emergency at the southwest border and ordered the deployment of U.S. military resources to assist with border security operations. The administration also shut down a mobile application introduced under Biden that allowed migrants to schedule asylum appointments. At the same time, immigration enforcement and deportation efforts within the United States were expanded, which analysts say may have discouraged new attempts to cross the border.

While the annual data show a steep overall decline, the analysis highlights that the drop became even more pronounced after the start of Trump’s second term. The first several months of the 2025 fiscal year still fell under the Biden administration, when encounter numbers were comparatively higher.

From February 2025—the first full month of Trump’s current term—monthly encounters at the southwest border fell below 10,000. This is the lowest monthly level recorded in more than 25 years and even lower than April 2020, when encounters dropped to 16,182 during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Researchers note that migration patterns along the US–Mexico border have historically fluctuated due to a range of factors, including economic conditions, political instability, and security concerns in migrants’ home countries, as well as shifting immigration policies in the United States, Mexico, and other transit nations.